Capabilities Analysis

Chinese inaction on Red Sea crisis raises capability questions

2024-08-22

China has done little to nothing to halt Houthi attacks on shipping in the Red Sea despite the clear threat to its commercial interests.

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Sailors prepare an F/A-18E Super Hornet for launch aboard the Nimitz-class aircraft carrier USS Dwight D. Eisenhower in the Red Sea, April 19. [US Navy]
Sailors prepare an F/A-18E Super Hornet for launch aboard the Nimitz-class aircraft carrier USS Dwight D. Eisenhower in the Red Sea, April 19. [US Navy]

China's failure to respond to Iranian-backed Houthi attacks on maritime shipping in the Red Sea, in contrast to the US response, shows that it is incapable of doing so despite its direct interests in the region.

Yemen's Houthis have been launching near-daily attacks on commercial vessels and civilian crews in the vital Red Sea corridor since November, interrupting international commerce and leading to heightened shipping costs.

About 30% of global maritime shipping cargo and more than 1 million barrels of crude oil pass through the Suez Canal into the Red Sea each day, according to an analysis by global freight trackers Freightos Group.

Houthi rebels have struck ships and crews with ties to more than 50 different countries, according to the US State Department.

Though Beijing has called for an end to the attacks, it has remained conspicuously reluctant to play a proactive role in the conflict.

Meanwhile, the United States remains the partner of choice in the region.

The United States in December announced the establishment of Operation Prosperity Guardian, a multinational effort to protect maritime shipping in the region. More than 20 nations have agreed to participate in the effort.

In addition to patrols from coalition ships in the Red Sea, the US Navy has struck Houthi launch sites and destroyed incoming Houthi missiles and drones.

Lack of capacity

China, as one of the world's largest trading nations, has a substantial stake in the stability of the Red Sea.

For China, rerouting its ships around Africa's Cape of Good Hope adds 10 days or more to transit times, significantly increasing costs.

Yet, despite the clear threat to its commercial interests, Beijing has remained notably passive.

The caution reflects a lack of leadership and capacity belying its goal of becoming a world power, say analysts.

"[China] certainly does not show any appetite for acting as a major responsible power," Ori Sela, an associate professor at Tel Aviv University, told the South China Morning Post in January.

"While China maintains a clear rhetoric on maintaining peace and stability, in practice, so far, it seems as though China has little capability to deliver either in terms of military power or in terms of diplomacy."

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